"Cyclical Forces Driving the Economy, but Not the Stock Market" with Lewis Spellman
The economy has been in a growth rut for six years with one large shock after another. But, there is also a cyclical component to GDP growth that lives a life of its own and can drive an economy. The very low levels of plant and equipment spending since the tech boom of the 1990's leaves the United States and most world economies with aging physical plant and equipment. The pressures to replace and modernize plant and equipment will likely be the well spring of the next push for GDP growth. But don’t confuse growth of GDP with growth of corporate profits as we will be utilizing scarce and more expensive plant capacity and skilled labor during the later stages of this cyclical uplift.
Professor Spellman’s teaches financial markets and institutions at both the graduate and undergraduate level with an emphasis on analyzing and interpreting current financial market trends and policy developments.
His experience outside of academics includes government service as assistant to the chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors and as an economist with the Federal Reserve Board. His published works generally concern the market pricing of financial institution claims. Professor Spellman also holds several U.S. patents relating to inflation adjusting financial instruments that led to the development of the Treasury TIPS instrument.